Note: this was originally formatted to be posted to Bluesky, but it got really long, so I posted it here. That's why it looks like I somehow typed it out on sticky notes.
Let me go ahead and say up front that I fully expect to receive a lot of backlash for this. There may even be threats against my life, and there's a non-zero chance that this will result in my psychological conditions being exacerbated to levels I can't actually survive. Yet, I must speak.
First, I'm gonna recommend that anyone who feels like that they might want to get involved with any kinetic action in the foreseeable future read "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Robert A. Heinlein. It contains a layout of a proper revolutionary setup, including some analysis of the "why"s involved
Then, I suggest you do some cursory reading on revolutions in history, both successful and unsuccessful. Note how few of the ones that sacrificed the element of surprise as well as exposed all their members to public scrutiny before they were ready to act failed. It's a lot.
Next, I need to spell out some hard truths.
Calls to violence will not produce the results you want if you want to end the fascism.
Note: "calls to violence." If you did the reading I recommend, you understand why I chose those words.
I'm an infantry veteran; I know violence is a tool.
The reasons why calls to violence result in failure are numerous, but two are particularly important:
One: You expose yourself and all your comrades to intense scrutiny and surveillance. You don't want your enemy watching you until after you've begun to act.
Two: You lose the element of surprise.
To be an effective tool for positive change, violence must be controlled, carefully directed, and focused on practical outcomes rather than retribution. If you fail to keep those in mind, at best you create a decades long insurgency which will eventually be wiped out. You will lose. We will lose.
Authoritarian regimes don't need excuses only once they've fully cemented their power, and believe it or not, the current authoritarian regime in the US is actually farther from that today than they were 10 months ago; they're losing their power base and they know it.
The actions already being undertaken, many of them including partial cooperation with some elected officials and organizations that have proven they serve the community rather than the federal executive, are working. The SS cosplayer is being reassigned, they're paying to cool down rhetoric.
Why? Because in most nations today, the governing mechanic known as democracy still has much more power than they want you to know. If they could actually make your vote and your voice useless, they wouldn't be paying billions to buy or silence them. The narrative that it doesn't matter helps them.
That hasn't changed; all that's changed is the tools they use are slightly different. Instead of massacres like Tulsa or assassinations, they use voter suppression laws, destruction of education, propaganda, poverty/long work hours, etc., all under the color of law. It's not better, just different.
And yet they fail; they fail a lot. NYC has a mayor who is actively and visibly progressive, so much so that his in-person service to the community has become a meme among many who support him. WI has a progressive leaning state Supreme Court for the first time in my lifetime, possibly longer.
And you know what the pivotal factor was for each of those victories for us, for the working class? Working class voter turnout, especially among marginalized groups that are constantly being fed propaganda that their vote doesn't count. Clearly, it did and it does. They're scared of our votes.
Yet that's not enough. Electoralism is the least effective method of activism for the left. So we need to use other methods. Not just violence, but protests, boycotts, targeted campaigns against bad actors to shame, discredit, or even destroy them socially and economically, all legal and effective.
And yes, there come times in history where violence becomes a viable tool for positive change, but it's important to avoid accelerationism, because the people who pay the price during violent upheavals are the poorest, the most vulnerable, the people we need most to protect. The cost is always high.
The highest casualties in any war are civilians. Not soldiers, not politicians, not even journalists and other third parties in the battlefield. It is up to us to prepare so that such casualties are reduced as much as possible. Prep water treatment, long lasting food, shelter and repair tools, etc.
If you want to go to war, prepare to defend peace. That doesn't just mean get ready to fight, it means get ready to help people who want no part in the war, no matter the reason. They're innocent, and they're going to be the ones paying the price if we screw all of this up. So be ready to help them.
Finally, I need to point out some things a lot of people do not want to admit: winning the slow way sucks ass, it feels like injustice, it costs far too much, and I don't know anyone that actually wants to do it. Yet, it produces much better results, in regards to both cost and lasting power.
Also, we're not alone this time. We have support from people and organizations that have never properly supported us before, and some of them are willing to literally stand with us. The National Guard is a state and local militia; their existence is a check on federal governmental power.
We've seen local authorities, state leaders, political organizations across the sociopolitical spectrum, and more finally provide a little support. Don't blindly trust any of them, obviously, but it's a good sign when even the NRA can see when the authoritarian goons have gone too far.
And this leads to the last harsh truth: violence needs to be our last resort for a reason, because we are getting much more support this time around in part because we refused to let agitators turn our protests into cover for rioting, vandalism, and other crimes. We need that.
If you want to live in a country that relies on democracy, a country in which the voice of the people matters more than the voices of politicians and agitators, you need to win more people over. You alienate too much of the populace and the only way you win is by becoming authoritarian yourself.
Most of the time, after a collapse of an empire, what replaces it is a significantly more authoritarian and often much more conservative power structure. This is born out in history time and time again, and if you think this is bad, imagine if it was replaced by a real theocracy with no democracy.
That's what you risk when you go kinetic: millions of innocent lives lost, a forced need for authoritarianism no matter who takes over, and the very high likelihood that we end up with either a hyper-conservative theocracy or an overt oligarchy, all without any level of democracy.
Why? Because the people who can weather the storm the best still come out on top, and right now, that's pretty much just the obscenely rich and/or corrupt religious leaders. The only way to change that is to ensure that there are effectively zero casualties, which is impossible in kinetic warfare.
"The soldier, above al other people, prays for peace," is something that I wish were more true, but for many of us, it is quite true. There is nothing I want more than a nation where everyone can thrive, where poverty means you get chicken instead of steak, not that you're homeless.
I do not believe I will ever live in such a country; if one does exist in my lifetime, it won't be mine. But I will continue to do anything I can to push us towards that end. I was promised "liberty and justice for all" when I signed up for service, and I will die before I accept less than that.
That all being said, there may come a day where violence is the only viable option left, and should that day arrive before I expire, my intent is to help those in need, not become a hinderance. Good militaries do that for their service members, because it lets them fight harder on the front lines.
But for now, despite everything, including the murders perpetrated by ICE, what we've done so far has had a significant effect. We haven't won the war yet, but we're making headway. We've convinced a majority of surveyed Americans to support the cause at least a bit, and that's not nothing.
Keep up the fight, but keep things holstered for now. Take the time we've bought to learn more, prepare more, and build community support networks. Even if we win without violence, all that work will make us stronger, and we'll have more power to make changes that help everyone.
Some good resources for you:
"The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress" by Robert A. Heinlein
Belle of the Ranch on Youtube (leftist news channel, no sensationalism, incredibly good analysis)
https://archive.org/details/military-manuals (lots of good info here)
